KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

34%

17%

<1%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.3¢Risks 23.30u

WN2NO 76.7¢Risks 76.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.70u · WN2 −76.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:14+00:00	3.1%	50.0%	3.1%	27.1%	71.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	3.1%	50.0%	3.3%	27.1%	71.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	3.1%	50.0%	3.3%	27.1%	71.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	3.1%	50.0%	3.3%	27.1%	71.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	3.1%	50.0%	3.3%	27.1%	71.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:00+00:00	2.9%	50.0%	3.3%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	2.9%	50.0%	3.3%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	2.9%	50.0%	3.3%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	2.9%	50.0%	3.3%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	2.9%	45.9%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	2.9%	45.9%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	2.9%	45.9%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	2.9%	45.9%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	2.4%	45.9%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	2.4%	45.8%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	2.4%	45.8%	0.8%	21.8%	34.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	2.4%	45.8%	0.8%	22.1%	34.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	2.4%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	34.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	2.4%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	34.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	2.4%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	34.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	33.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:38+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	33.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	33.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.6%	22.1%	33.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.6%	17.0%	33.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.8%	16.6%	33.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.8%	16.6%	33.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	2.7%	45.8%	0.8%	16.6%	33.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	1.7%	45.8%	0.8%	16.6%	33.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	1.7%	45.8%	0.8%	16.6%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	54%	82.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2884
IFS Ensemble	46%	81.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2098
ICON	34%	79.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1129
IFS HRES	17%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0276
AIFS Single	2%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗