— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
46¢
eps
32¢
hres
18¢
icon
17¢
aifs
7¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F8¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape