KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

18%

17%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.0¢Risks 16.95u

WN2NO 83.0¢Risks 83.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +83.05u · WN2 −83.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	6.3%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	74.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	3.8%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	3.8%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	3.8%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	3.8%	41.4%	6.6%	57.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T10:34:06+00:00	3.8%	41.4%	6.6%	23.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	3.8%	30.3%	2.1%	23.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	3.8%	30.3%	2.1%	23.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	3.8%	30.3%	2.1%	23.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	6.5%	30.3%	2.1%	23.3%	33.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	6.6%	30.3%	2.0%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	2.0%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	2.0%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	2.0%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	1.4%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	1.4%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	1.4%	23.3%	33.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	3.7%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	6.6%	32.5%	1.4%	17.9%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	78.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	77.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗