— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
87¢
eps
62¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
53¢
icon
52¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F25¢
88–89°F18¢
90–91°F9¢
92–93°F3¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape