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KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
62%
HRES
53%
ICON
52%
AIFS
26%
WN2
23%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u
VS
WN2NO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.30u · WN2 −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS HRES: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:0028.3%50.0%21.4%54.2%53.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0028.3%50.0%27.4%54.2%53.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0028.3%50.0%27.4%54.2%53.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:0028.3%50.0%27.4%54.2%53.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:0030.0%50.0%27.4%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0030.0%50.0%27.4%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0030.0%50.0%27.4%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0030.0%50.0%27.4%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:0030.0%50.0%27.4%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:0030.0%62.1%23.3%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:0030.0%62.1%23.3%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0030.0%62.1%23.3%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:0025.9%62.1%23.3%52.8%52.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0025.9%62.1%23.3%52.8%52.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend87%89.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%87.3°F2.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%87.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES53%86.9°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON52%86.8°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single26%83.3°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%83.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗