daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Oct 24

Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

30¢

american +230 · decimal 3.3

on the tape

88°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 88°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		48¢
hres		41¢
eps		38¢
ndfd		37¢
nbm		33¢
aifs		25¢
wn2		17¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

78–79°F2¢

80–81°F6¢

82–83°F14¢

84–85°F23¢

86–87°F25¢

88–89°F18¢

90–91°F9¢

92–93°F3¢

94–95°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape