KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

41%

38%

25%

17%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.4¢Risks 32.40u

WN2NO 67.6¢Risks 67.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.60u · WN2 −67.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:54+00:00	21.2%	69.1%	24.3%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	21.2%	69.1%	24.3%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	21.2%	69.1%	24.3%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	21.2%	69.1%	24.3%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	21.2%	69.1%	24.3%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	21.2%	71.8%	22.2%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	21.2%	71.8%	22.2%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	21.2%	71.8%	22.2%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	25.4%	71.8%	22.2%	43.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	25.4%	71.8%	22.3%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	25.4%	61.2%	22.3%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	25.4%	61.2%	22.3%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	25.4%	61.2%	19.5%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	25.4%	61.2%	19.5%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	25.4%	61.2%	19.5%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	25.4%	61.2%	19.5%	43.8%	4.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	19.5%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	19.5%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	19.5%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	19.5%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	21.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	22.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	22.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	22.2%	61.2%	17.4%	45.7%	54.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00	20.9%	46.9%	15.9%	43.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	20.9%	46.9%	15.9%	43.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	20.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	20.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	20.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	24.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	24.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	24.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	24.9%	46.9%	20.4%	43.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	24.9%	37.9%	17.3%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	24.9%	37.9%	17.3%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	24.9%	37.9%	17.3%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	24.9%	37.9%	17.3%	41.3%	47.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	87.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	86.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	86.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	84.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	84.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗