— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
77¢
eps
65¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
48¢
hres
35¢
aifs
34¢
wn2
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F20¢
88–89°F12¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape