Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
EPS +52.30u · WN2 −52.30u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
No model probability history is available for this view yet.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Blend | 77% | 88.0°F | 3.3°F | 2026-10-19 06:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 65% | 86.7°F | 3.1°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| NWS forecast | 53% | 86.0°F | 5.9°F | 2026-10-19 03:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 48% | 85.1°F | 7.1°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 35% | 82.9°F | 6.6°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 34% | 83.2°F | 5.4°F | 2026-10-19 06:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 30% | 83.1°F | 4.7°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 86°F · KAUS
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC
Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗