— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
68¢
nbm
54¢
aifs
50¢
wn2
32¢
hres
13¢
icon
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F3¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape