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KAUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
68%
AIFS
50%
WN2
32%
HRES
13%
ICON
12%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 40.3¢Risks 40.30u
VS
ICONNO 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.70u · ICON −59.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:0050.0%68.2%31.9%12.8%12.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0050.0%68.2%31.9%12.8%12.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0050.0%68.2%31.9%12.8%12.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0050.0%68.2%31.9%12.8%12.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble68%83.3°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%82.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single50%81.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 232%79.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES13%74.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON12%69.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗