— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
46¢
icon
39¢
wn2
27¢
hres
27¢
aifs
22¢
eps
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F13¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape