KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

27%

27%

22%

17%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.8¢Risks 27.80u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.20u · EPS −72.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00	15.8%	22.0%	26.1%	42.5%	13.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	15.8%	22.0%	26.1%	42.5%	13.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	15.8%	22.0%	26.1%	42.5%	13.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	15.8%	22.0%	26.1%	42.5%	13.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00	15.8%	22.0%	26.1%	42.5%	13.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00	37.4%	26.3%	25.3%	27.4%	35.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	37.4%	26.3%	35.9%	27.4%	35.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	37.4%	26.3%	35.9%	27.4%	35.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	37.4%	26.3%	35.9%	27.4%	35.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	37.4%	26.3%	35.9%	27.4%	35.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00	36.0%	26.3%	35.9%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	36.0%	26.3%	35.9%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	36.0%	26.3%	35.9%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	36.0%	26.3%	35.9%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	36.0%	14.1%	22.2%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	36.0%	14.1%	22.2%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	36.0%	14.1%	22.2%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	36.0%	14.1%	22.2%	25.1%	34.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	31.2%	14.1%	22.2%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	31.2%	16.9%	22.2%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	31.2%	16.9%	22.2%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	31.2%	16.9%	22.2%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	31.2%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	31.2%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	31.2%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	37.4%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	38.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	37.4%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	38.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	37.4%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	38.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	37.4%	16.9%	26.3%	25.1%	38.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	37.4%	16.9%	26.3%	26.6%	38.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	37.4%	16.8%	27.1%	26.6%	38.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	37.4%	16.8%	27.1%	26.6%	38.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	37.4%	16.8%	27.1%	26.6%	38.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	22.5%	16.8%	27.1%	26.6%	38.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	22.5%	16.8%	27.1%	26.6%	38.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	46%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2116
ICON	39%	77.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1505
WeatherNext 2	27%	76.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0734
IFS HRES	27%	75.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0708
AIFS Single	22%	75.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0506
IFS Ensemble	17%	76.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0282

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗