daily prop · Birmingham, AL · Southeast · settles Wed Oct 21

Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Wed Oct 21

9¢

american +996 · decimal 10.96

on the tape

83°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 83°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		30¢
eps		24¢
ndfd		21¢
nbm		13¢
wn2		13¢
hres		11¢
rrfs		4¢
icon		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

72–73°F1¢

74–75°F5¢

76–77°F17¢

78–79°F31¢

80–81°F29¢

82–83°F14¢

84–85°F4¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape