KBHM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 21 · 06:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.5¢Risks 13.45u

ICONNO 86.5¢Risks 86.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.55u · ICON −86.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:39:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:48+00:00	50.0%	24.9%	47.8%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	50.0%	11.9%	32.2%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	50.0%	11.9%	32.2%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	50.0%	11.9%	32.2%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	24.9%	11.9%	32.2%	18.0%	11.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	24.9%	11.9%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	24.9%	14.2%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	24.9%	14.2%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	24.9%	14.2%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	24.9%	14.2%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	24.9%	14.2%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	24.9%	14.2%	32.3%	18.0%	12.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	32.3%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	32.3%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	32.3%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	32.3%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	32.3%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:07+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	33.0%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	30.2%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	30.2%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	24.4%	14.2%	30.2%	21.5%	41.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	47.0%	14.2%	30.2%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	47.0%	14.2%	30.2%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	47.0%	14.2%	30.2%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	47.0%	14.2%	30.2%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	47.0%	14.2%	30.2%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	47.0%	14.2%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	47.0%	10.7%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	47.0%	10.7%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	21.3%	10.7%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	21.3%	10.7%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:06+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	29.6%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	28.9%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	28.9%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	28.9%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	28.9%	27.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	43.4%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:05+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	26.7%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	40.5%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	33.6%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	33.6%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	33.6%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	33.6%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	33.6%	12.0%	28.9%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	33.6%	20.9%	23.3%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	33.6%	20.9%	23.3%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	33.6%	20.9%	23.3%	22.4%	30.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	42.8%	20.9%	23.3%	16.2%	30.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	42.8%	20.9%	23.3%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	42.8%	24.8%	23.3%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	42.8%	24.8%	23.3%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	42.8%	24.8%	23.3%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	42.8%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	42.8%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	42.8%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	30.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	20.4%	16.2%	25.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	20.4%	18.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	42.0%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	21.1%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	45.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	25.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	42.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	42.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	42.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	42.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	42.2%	24.8%	25.6%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	42.2%	32.3%	23.4%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	42.2%	32.3%	23.4%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	42.2%	32.3%	23.4%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	38.8%	32.3%	23.4%	18.4%	12.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	23.5%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	23.5%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	23.5%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	26.9%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	26.9%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	26.9%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	38.9%	32.3%	26.9%	18.4%	12.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	26.9%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	26.9%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	26.9%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	26.9%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	38.0%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	22.6%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	28.7%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	28.7%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	28.7%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	28.7%	15.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	36.3%	32.3%	28.7%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	36.3%	32.3%	28.7%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	36.3%	32.3%	28.7%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	36.3%	32.3%	28.7%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	36.3%	25.7%	22.9%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	36.3%	25.7%	22.9%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	36.3%	25.7%	22.9%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	36.3%	25.7%	22.9%	10.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	33.7%	26.4%	22.9%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	33.7%	26.4%	22.9%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	33.7%	14.3%	22.9%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	33.7%	14.3%	22.9%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	33.7%	14.3%	21.2%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	33.7%	14.3%	21.2%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	33.7%	14.3%	21.2%	10.1%	11.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	21.2%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	21.2%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	21.2%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	21.2%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	21.2%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	32.0%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	18.7%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	23.8%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	23.8%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	31.1%	14.3%	23.8%	8.6%	7.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	30.2%	14.3%	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	30.2%	14.3%	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	30.2%	14.3%	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	30.2%	14.3%	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	30.2%	14.3%	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	30.2%	15.9%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	30.2%	15.9%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	30.2%	15.9%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	24.5%	15.9%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	24.4%	15.9%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	24.4%	14.3%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	24.4%	14.3%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	24.4%	14.3%	15.1%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	24.4%	14.3%	11.0%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	24.4%	14.3%	11.0%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	24.4%	14.3%	11.0%	9.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	11.0%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	11.0%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	11.0%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	11.0%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	11.0%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	26.8%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	12.9%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	27.6%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	2.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	29.7%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	1.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	29.7%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	1.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	29.7%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	1.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	29.7%	14.3%	19.2%	5.9%	1.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	29.7%	23.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	29.7%	23.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	29.7%	23.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	29.7%	23.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	29.6%	23.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	29.6%	23.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T15:31:50+00:00	29.6%	21.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	29.6%	21.8%	12.8%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T17:03:20+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T17:48:37+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T19:18:54+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	11.3%	1.8%
2026-10-20T20:04:08+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-20T20:49:24+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-20T21:34:32+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-20T22:19:39+00:00	22.2%	21.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-20T23:04:46+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-20T23:50:03+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T00:35:13+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T01:20:46+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T02:06:13+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T02:51:40+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T03:36:54+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T04:22:36+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	3.2%	1.5%
2026-10-21T05:09:03+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T05:54:15+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-21T06:39:25+00:00	25.4%	21.8%	9.6%	6.9%	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	25%	79.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	80.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	78.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	74.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	79.0°F	1.3°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗