— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
61¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
42¢
nbm
41¢
aifs
34¢
icon
31¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F13¢
78–79°F27¢
80–81°F30¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:05+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape