KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

42%

34%

31%

28%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.3¢Risks 44.30u

HRESNO 55.7¢Risks 55.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.70u · HRES −55.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:05+00:00	45.8%	43.9%	47.6%	34.8%	60.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	45.8%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	60.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	45.8%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	60.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	45.8%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	60.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	58.1%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	58.1%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	58.1%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	58.1%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	58.1%	43.9%	51.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	58.1%	35.7%	52.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	58.1%	35.7%	52.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	58.1%	35.7%	52.6%	34.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	54.4%	35.7%	52.6%	24.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	54.4%	35.9%	52.6%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	54.4%	37.7%	52.6%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	54.4%	37.6%	52.6%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	54.4%	37.6%	52.6%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	54.4%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	54.4%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	54.4%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	43.2%	24.8%	47.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	43.2%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	45.7%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	53.4%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	53.4%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	50.0%	37.6%	53.4%	36.9%	47.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	41.2%	37.6%	53.4%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	41.2%	37.6%	53.4%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	41.2%	37.6%	53.4%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	41.2%	37.6%	53.4%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	41.2%	37.6%	53.4%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	41.2%	60.7%	51.9%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	41.2%	60.7%	51.9%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	41.2%	60.7%	51.9%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	51.9%	32.6%	35.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	51.9%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	51.9%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	51.9%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	48.1%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	48.1%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	48.1%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	42.0%	60.7%	48.1%	32.7%	36.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	48.1%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	48.1%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	48.1%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	48.1%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	36.6%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	34.3%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	34.3%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	34.3%	60.7%	42.3%	27.9%	31.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	31%	78.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	78.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗