daily prop · Birmingham, AL · Southeast · settles Thu Oct 22

Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Oct 22

15¢

american +570 · decimal 6.7

on the tape

83°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 83°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		38¢
wn2		33¢
eps		31¢
ndfd		23¢
hres		15¢
nbm		12¢
rrfs		6¢
icon		5¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

74–75°F3¢

76–77°F13¢

78–79°F27¢

80–81°F30¢

82–83°F19¢

84–85°F6¢

86–87°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape