KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

33%

31%

15%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.4¢Risks 21.45u

ICONNO 78.5¢Risks 78.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.55u · ICON −78.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	59.1%	27.7%	38.4%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	59.1%	27.7%	38.4%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	59.1%	27.7%	38.4%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	59.1%	27.7%	38.4%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	59.1%	27.7%	38.4%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	59.1%	27.7%	42.9%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	59.1%	26.1%	42.9%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	59.1%	26.1%	42.9%	24.9%	18.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	36.3%	26.1%	43.0%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	36.3%	26.1%	43.0%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:06+00:00	36.3%	29.5%	43.0%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	36.3%	29.5%	43.0%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	36.3%	29.5%	39.1%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	36.3%	29.5%	39.1%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	36.3%	29.5%	39.1%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	36.3%	29.5%	39.1%	25.1%	18.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.1%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.1%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.1%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.1%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	51.4%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	39.0%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	39.0%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	39.0%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	39.0%	29.5%	39.9%	29.3%	56.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	27.2%	42.8%	33.1%	22.4%	25.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	27.2%	42.8%	34.0%	22.4%	25.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	27.2%	42.8%	34.0%	22.4%	25.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	27.2%	42.8%	34.0%	22.4%	25.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	27.2%	42.8%	34.0%	22.4%	25.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	25.7%	42.8%	34.0%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	25.7%	42.8%	34.0%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	25.7%	42.8%	34.0%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	25.7%	42.8%	34.0%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	25.7%	34.1%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	25.7%	34.1%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	25.7%	34.1%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	25.7%	34.1%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	23.6%	34.1%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	23.6%	34.1%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	31.5%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	27.8%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	27.8%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	27.8%	15.9%	15.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	27.8%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	27.8%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	27.8%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	27.8%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	27.8%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	24.3%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:42+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	23.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	31.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	31.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	23.6%	19.2%	31.5%	13.6%	17.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	32.8%	19.2%	31.5%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	32.8%	19.2%	31.5%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	32.8%	19.2%	31.5%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	32.8%	19.2%	31.5%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	32.8%	19.2%	31.5%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	32.8%	20.3%	33.9%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	32.8%	20.3%	33.9%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	32.8%	20.3%	33.9%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	27.1%	20.3%	33.9%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	27.1%	20.3%	33.8%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	27.1%	18.2%	33.8%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	27.1%	18.2%	33.8%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	27.1%	18.2%	33.8%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	27.1%	18.2%	27.6%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	27.1%	18.2%	27.6%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	27.1%	18.2%	27.6%	14.1%	12.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	27.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	27.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	27.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	27.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	27.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	32.8%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	30.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	35.4%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	9.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	38.3%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	38.3%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	38.3%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	38.3%	18.2%	40.6%	13.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	38.3%	30.9%	32.6%	15.3%	4.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	38.3%	30.9%	32.6%	15.3%	4.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	38.3%	30.9%	32.6%	15.3%	4.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	38.3%	30.9%	32.6%	15.3%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	38%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	81.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	78.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	76.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗