— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
62¢
wn2
62¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
50¢
nbm
41¢
icon
35¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F27¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape