KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

62%

50%

35%

28%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

HRESNO 55.0¢Risks 55.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.05u · HRES −55.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	56.4%	79.6%	62.4%	32.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	56.4%	61.5%	62.4%	32.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	56.4%	61.5%	62.4%	32.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	56.4%	61.5%	61.5%	32.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	56.4%	61.5%	61.5%	32.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	56.4%	61.5%	61.5%	32.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	54.8%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	61.5%	28.4%	35.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	80.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	77.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗