— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
36¢
icon
34¢
hres
31¢
eps
28¢
aifs
23¢
wn2
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape