KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

31%

28%

23%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.5¢Risks 20.45u

WN2NO 79.5¢Risks 79.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.55u · WN2 −79.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	13.3%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	13.3%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	13.3%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	13.3%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	13.3%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	13.3%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	2.8%	36.9%	67.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:35+00:00	16.6%	13.0%	2.8%	44.5%	67.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	16.6%	27.3%	8.7%	44.5%	67.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	16.6%	27.3%	8.7%	44.5%	67.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	16.6%	27.3%	8.7%	44.5%	67.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	32.1%	27.3%	8.7%	44.5%	67.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	32.2%	27.3%	8.7%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	32.2%	28.2%	8.7%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	32.2%	28.2%	8.7%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	32.2%	28.2%	8.7%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	32.2%	28.2%	9.9%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	32.2%	28.2%	9.9%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	32.2%	28.2%	9.9%	44.5%	66.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	9.9%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	9.9%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	9.9%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	9.9%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	9.9%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	7.2%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	7.2%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	17.2%	28.2%	7.2%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	22.8%	28.2%	7.2%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	22.8%	28.2%	7.2%	31.4%	33.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	22.8%	28.2%	7.2%	31.4%	33.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
National Blend	36%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1325
ICON	34%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1136
IFS HRES	31%	67.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0986
IFS Ensemble	28%	66.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0795
AIFS Single	23%	66.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0520
WeatherNext 2	7%	64.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0052

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗