— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
86¢
icon
84¢
eps
80¢
hres
72¢
aifs
68¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F28¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape