KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

80%

72%

68%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.8¢Risks 38.42u

AIFSNO 23.2¢Risks 11.58u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.58u · AIFS −11.58u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00	70.7%	79.5%	55.8%	68.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	70.7%	79.5%	55.8%	68.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	70.7%	79.5%	55.8%	68.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	70.7%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	70.7%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	70.7%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	83.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	83.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	83.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	79.6%	68.6%	83.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	79.6%	72.2%	83.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	76.6%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	67.9%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	67.9%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	67.9%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	67.9%	79.5%	85.8%	72.2%	83.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	84%	67.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	67.1°F	6.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	64.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	63.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	60.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗