— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
eps
99¢
aifs
97¢
hres
97¢
icon
93¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape