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KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
EPS
99%
AIFS
97%
HRES
97%
ICON
93%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 96.4¢Risks 24.09u
VS
ICONNO 3.6¢Risks 0.91u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.91u · ICON −0.91u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 96.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:0095.5%96.4%98.3%18.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:0095.5%96.4%99.0%18.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0095.5%96.4%99.0%18.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0095.5%96.4%99.0%18.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:0098.1%96.4%99.0%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0098.1%96.4%99.0%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0098.1%96.4%99.0%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0098.1%96.4%99.0%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0098.1%96.4%99.0%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:0098.1%98.8%99.9%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:0098.1%98.8%99.9%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0098.1%98.8%99.9%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:0097.1%98.8%99.9%96.9%92.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:0097.1%98.8%99.9%96.9%92.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%70.7°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble99%70.8°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single97%68.2°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES97%68.8°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON93%66.6°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend41%58.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗