— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
67¢
icon
65¢
eps
65¢
nbm
52¢
wn2
47¢
aifs
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
36–37°F1¢
38–39°F2¢
40–41°F4¢
42–43°F6¢
44–45°F10¢
46–47°F13¢
48–49°F15¢
50–51°F15¢
52–53°F13¢
54–55°F10¢
56–57°F6¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBIL-20261026-TMAX-GE50 · opened 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape