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KBIL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
67%
ICON
65%
EPS
65%
WN2
47%
AIFS
46%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 56.3¢Risks 56.30u
VS
AIFSNO 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.70u · AIFS −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:53+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS HRES: 66.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:53+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00ICON: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0010-19 11:2110-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:0086.3%65.8%29.9%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:0086.3%65.8%29.9%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0086.3%65.8%29.9%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:0072.3%65.8%29.9%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:0072.3%65.8%29.8%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:53+00:0072.3%64.7%29.8%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:0072.3%64.7%29.8%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:0072.3%64.7%29.8%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:0072.3%64.7%49.2%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:0072.3%64.7%49.2%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:0072.3%64.7%49.2%97.5%30.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:0064.3%64.7%49.2%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:0064.3%64.7%49.2%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:0064.3%64.7%49.2%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:0064.3%64.7%49.2%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0064.3%64.7%49.2%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0064.3%64.8%46.9%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:0064.3%64.8%46.9%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0064.3%64.8%46.9%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:0045.8%64.8%46.9%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:0045.8%64.8%46.9%66.8%65.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0045.8%64.8%46.9%66.8%65.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES67%52.3°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON65%53.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%54.2°F12.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend52%50.0°F9.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 247%49.1°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single46%48.9°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261026-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 50°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗