— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
81¢
ndfd
81¢
hres
79¢
nbm
75¢
aifs
67¢
wn2
66¢
icon
55¢
eps
50¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
86–87°F1¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F16¢
92–93°F29¢
94–95°F28¢
96–97°F15¢
98–99°F4¢
100–101°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,366 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.569 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE93 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape