KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

67%

66%

55%

50%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

EPSNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.70u · EPS −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	45.4%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	36.5%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	36.5%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	36.5%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	67.9%	52.8%	36.5%	71.3%	60.1%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	36.5%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	36.5%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	36.5%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	36.5%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	44.3%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	44.3%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	44.3%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	68.7%	52.8%	44.3%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	68.7%	52.8%	44.3%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	68.7%	54.3%	44.3%	70.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	68.7%	54.3%	44.3%	68.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	68.7%	54.3%	44.3%	68.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	68.7%	54.3%	57.9%	68.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	68.7%	54.3%	57.9%	68.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	68.7%	54.3%	57.9%	68.4%	64.4%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	69.2%	54.3%	57.9%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	69.2%	54.3%	57.9%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	69.2%	54.3%	57.9%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	69.2%	54.3%	57.9%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	69.2%	51.5%	57.9%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	69.2%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	69.2%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	69.2%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	52.4%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	43.0%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	43.0%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	43.0%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	64.9%	51.5%	43.0%	68.3%	55.6%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	68.4%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	66.7%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	66.7%	51.5%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	66.7%	50.0%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	66.7%	50.0%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	66.7%	50.0%	43.0%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	66.7%	50.0%	66.1%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	66.7%	50.0%	66.1%	78.6%	54.5%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	66.7%	50.0%	66.1%	78.6%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	81%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	94.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	94.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	93.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	92.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	92.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗