— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
72¢
nbm
67¢
aifs
65¢
ndfd
57¢
icon
31¢
hres
25¢
wn2
25¢
eps
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F1¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F12¢
88–89°F22¢
90–91°F26¢
92–93°F20¢
94–95°F10¢
96–97°F3¢
98–99°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,374 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.963 vs climatology 9.328.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE93 · opened 2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape