KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

31%

25%

25%

24%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

EPSNO 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.45u · EPS −55.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	63.1%	27.9%	37.7%	42.1%	54.8%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	63.1%	27.9%	37.7%	42.1%	54.8%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	63.1%	27.9%	35.2%	42.1%	54.8%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	63.1%	27.9%	35.2%	42.1%	54.8%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	63.1%	27.9%	35.2%	42.1%	54.8%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	63.1%	27.9%	35.2%	42.1%	54.8%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	35.2%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	35.2%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	35.2%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	35.2%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	31.9%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	31.9%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	50.7%	27.9%	31.9%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	31.9%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	31.9%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	31.9%	47.8%	69.4%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	31.9%	48.2%	69.4%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	31.9%	48.2%	69.4%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	42.9%	48.2%	69.4%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	42.9%	48.2%	69.4%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	55.9%	27.9%	42.9%	48.2%	69.4%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	69.7%	27.9%	42.9%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	69.7%	27.9%	42.9%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	69.7%	27.9%	42.9%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	69.7%	27.9%	42.9%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	69.7%	37.8%	42.9%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	69.7%	37.8%	40.5%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	69.7%	37.8%	40.5%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	69.7%	37.8%	40.5%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.5%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.4%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.4%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.4%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.4%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.4%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	40.4%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	38.6%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	38.6%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	38.6%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	66.2%	37.8%	38.6%	66.5%	57.6%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	38.6%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	38.6%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	38.6%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	38.6%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	38.6%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	60.2%	37.8%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	62.5%	37.8%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	62.5%	37.8%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	62.5%	36.5%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	62.5%	36.5%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	62.5%	36.5%	41.4%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	62.5%	36.5%	43.3%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	62.5%	36.5%	43.3%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	62.5%	36.5%	43.3%	47.3%	61.7%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	43.3%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	43.3%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	43.3%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	43.3%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	43.3%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	36.9%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	36.9%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	56.7%	36.5%	36.9%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	57.5%	36.5%	36.9%	22.8%	8.7%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	57.5%	36.5%	36.9%	22.8%	8.8%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	57.5%	—	36.9%	22.8%	8.8%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	57.5%	—	36.9%	22.8%	8.8%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	57.5%	—	36.9%	22.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	57.5%	—	32.1%	22.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	57.5%	—	32.1%	22.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	57.5%	—	32.1%	22.8%	26.6%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	55.0%	—	32.1%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	55.0%	—	32.1%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	55.0%	—	32.1%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	55.0%	—	32.1%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	55.0%	—	32.1%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	55.0%	—	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	55.0%	—	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	55.0%	—	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	59.2%	—	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	30.3%	45.3%	26.6%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	30.3%	45.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	35.0%	45.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	35.0%	45.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	59.2%	16.6%	35.0%	45.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	58.0%	16.6%	35.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	58.0%	16.6%	35.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	58.0%	16.6%	35.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	58.0%	16.6%	35.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	58.0%	16.6%	35.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	58.0%	8.9%	36.1%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	58.0%	8.9%	36.1%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	58.0%	8.9%	36.1%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	59.7%	8.9%	36.1%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	36.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	36.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	36.0%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-09-10T16:42:15+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	36.0%	21.4%	32.1%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	21.4%	32.1%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	21.4%	32.1%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	21.4%	32.1%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	34.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	59.7%	9.0%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	33.0%	16.1%	32.1%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	33.0%	16.1%	9.6%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	36.0%	16.1%	9.6%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	36.0%	16.1%	9.6%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	54.5%	6.7%	36.0%	16.1%	9.6%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	63.7%	6.7%	36.0%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	63.7%	6.7%	36.0%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	63.7%	6.7%	36.0%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	63.7%	6.7%	36.0%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	63.7%	6.7%	36.0%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	63.7%	6.6%	32.4%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	63.7%	6.6%	32.4%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	63.7%	6.6%	32.4%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	67.1%	6.6%	32.4%	22.9%	9.6%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	67.2%	9.2%	32.3%	22.8%	10.1%
2026-09-11T15:15:58+00:00	67.2%	6.6%	32.3%	22.8%	10.1%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	67.2%	6.6%	32.3%	22.8%	10.1%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	67.2%	6.6%	32.3%	22.8%	16.0%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	67.2%	6.6%	30.3%	22.8%	16.0%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	67.2%	6.6%	30.3%	22.8%	16.0%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	67.2%	6.6%	30.3%	22.8%	16.0%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	30.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	30.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	30.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	30.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	30.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	64.6%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	27.4%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	32.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	32.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	61.1%	6.6%	32.3%	37.7%	16.0%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	62.3%	6.6%	32.3%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	62.3%	6.6%	32.3%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	62.3%	6.6%	32.3%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	62.3%	6.6%	32.3%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	62.3%	6.6%	32.3%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	62.3%	19.8%	27.7%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	62.3%	19.8%	27.7%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	62.3%	19.8%	27.7%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	61.4%	19.8%	27.7%	22.9%	23.2%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	61.4%	19.9%	27.7%	29.0%	24.1%
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	27.7%	22.9%	24.1%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	27.7%	22.9%	24.1%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	27.7%	22.9%	24.1%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	24.1%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	24.1%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	24.1%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	30.6%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	30.6%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	30.6%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	22.9%	30.6%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:25+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	61.4%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	65.0%	24.1%	24.8%	25.4%	30.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	67%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	94.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	93.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	31%	90.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	90.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	90.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	90.6°F	2.7°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗