— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
99¢
eps
98¢
ndfd
95¢
icon
94¢
aifs
92¢
hres
91¢
wn2
89¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F2¢
92–93°F8¢
94–95°F21¢
96–97°F30¢
98–99°F24¢
100–101°F11¢
102–103°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,640 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.747 vs climatology 9.295.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape