KBNA / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

92%

91%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 93.4¢Risks 23.35u

WN2NO 6.6¢Risks 1.65u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.65u · WN2 −1.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	69.6%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	69.6%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	69.6%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	69.6%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	69.6%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	77.0%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	77.0%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	78.8%	71.8%	77.0%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	70.1%	71.8%	77.0%	71.0%	56.9%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	70.1%	71.9%	77.0%	71.0%	57.3%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	70.1%	78.6%	77.0%	71.0%	57.3%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	70.1%	78.6%	77.0%	71.0%	57.3%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	70.1%	78.6%	77.0%	71.0%	68.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	70.1%	78.6%	70.1%	71.0%	68.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	70.1%	78.6%	70.1%	71.0%	68.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	70.1%	78.6%	70.1%	71.0%	68.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.1%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.1%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.1%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.1%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.1%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.8%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.8%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	71.3%	78.6%	70.8%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	76.6%	78.6%	70.8%	68.7%	85.6%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	70.9%	68.7%	85.4%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	70.9%	68.7%	85.4%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	70.9%	68.7%	85.4%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	70.9%	68.7%	83.7%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	72.3%	68.7%	83.7%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	72.3%	68.7%	83.7%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	76.6%	77.8%	72.3%	68.7%	83.7%
2026-09-10T07:40:49+00:00	76.0%	77.8%	72.3%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T08:26:01+00:00	76.0%	77.8%	72.3%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	76.0%	77.8%	72.3%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	76.0%	77.8%	72.3%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T10:41:14+00:00	76.0%	77.8%	72.3%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T11:26:20+00:00	76.0%	75.4%	79.1%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T12:11:27+00:00	76.0%	75.4%	79.1%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	76.0%	75.4%	79.1%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	79.1%	83.6%	83.7%
2026-09-10T14:26:55+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	79.0%	83.5%	84.1%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	79.0%	83.5%	84.1%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	79.0%	83.5%	84.1%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	79.0%	83.5%	86.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	77.7%	83.5%	86.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	77.7%	83.5%	86.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	82.4%	75.4%	77.7%	83.5%	86.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	77.7%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	77.7%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	77.7%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	77.7%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	77.7%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	86.0%	75.4%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	86.0%	76.4%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	84.9%	76.9%	86.5%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	84.9%	76.9%	78.3%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	86.4%	76.9%	78.3%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	86.4%	76.9%	78.3%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	84.7%	72.1%	86.4%	76.9%	78.3%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	90.9%	72.1%	86.4%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	90.9%	72.1%	86.4%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	90.9%	72.1%	86.4%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	90.9%	72.1%	86.4%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	90.9%	72.1%	86.4%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	90.9%	96.0%	89.6%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	90.9%	96.0%	89.6%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	90.9%	96.0%	89.6%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	89.6%	81.7%	78.3%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	92.5%	97.2%	89.6%	81.7%	78.2%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	89.6%	81.7%	78.2%
2026-09-11T16:01:08+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	89.6%	81.7%	78.2%
2026-09-11T16:46:13+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	89.6%	81.7%	85.5%
2026-09-11T17:31:19+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	87.7%	81.7%	85.5%
2026-09-11T18:16:27+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	87.7%	81.7%	85.5%
2026-09-11T19:01:32+00:00	92.5%	96.3%	87.7%	81.7%	85.5%
2026-09-11T19:46:37+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	87.7%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	87.7%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-11T21:16:50+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	87.7%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-11T22:01:57+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	87.7%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	93.3%	96.3%	87.7%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	93.3%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T00:17:14+00:00	93.3%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	93.3%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T02:32:34+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T03:17:43+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T04:02:55+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	87.2%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T05:33:05+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	92.0%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T06:18:13+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	92.0%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T07:03:18+00:00	92.5%	96.0%	92.0%	95.4%	85.5%
2026-09-12T07:48:29+00:00	92.8%	96.0%	92.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T08:33:45+00:00	92.8%	96.0%	92.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T09:18:50+00:00	92.8%	96.0%	92.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T10:03:55+00:00	92.8%	96.0%	92.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T10:48:59+00:00	92.8%	96.0%	92.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	92.8%	97.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	92.8%	97.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	92.8%	97.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	93.6%	97.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.5%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	93.6%	97.3%	91.0%	76.8%	95.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:09+00:00	93.6%	98.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	93.6%	98.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	93.6%	98.3%	91.0%	83.3%	95.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	93.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	95.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	93.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	95.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	93.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	95.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	91.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	94.3%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	91.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	94.3%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	91.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	94.3%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	91.6%	98.3%	90.1%	83.3%	94.3%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	91.6%	98.3%	90.1%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T04:07:06+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T04:52:18+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	92.5%	98.1%	88.7%	91.0%	94.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	94.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	94.9°F	2.6°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	96.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	94%	96.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	96.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	96.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	94.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260916-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 09 · 07:37 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗