— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
95¢
aifs
94¢
icon
92¢
wn2
80¢
eps
77¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F1¢
92–93°F5¢
94–95°F17¢
96–97°F31¢
98–99°F29¢
100–101°F14¢
102–103°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,847 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape