KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Sep 13 · 03:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

92%

80%

77%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 86.1¢Risks 43.07u

EPSNO 13.9¢Risks 6.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +6.93u · EPS −6.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T11:34:06+00:00	88.8%	73.9%	73.6%	77.3%	78.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:14+00:00	88.8%	73.9%	73.6%	77.3%	78.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:22+00:00	88.8%	73.9%	73.6%	77.3%	78.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:29+00:00	92.6%	73.9%	73.6%	77.3%	78.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:59+00:00	92.6%	73.8%	73.6%	73.6%	78.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:10+00:00	92.6%	77.0%	73.6%	77.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:21+00:00	92.6%	77.0%	73.6%	77.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	92.6%	77.0%	73.6%	77.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:32+00:00	92.6%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:41+00:00	92.6%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	92.6%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	78.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	91.7%
2026-09-12T20:35:57+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	91.7%
2026-09-12T21:21:02+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	91.7%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	74.9%	77.2%	91.7%
2026-09-12T22:51:13+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	74.9%	95.3%	91.7%
2026-09-12T23:36:19+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	80.5%	95.3%	91.7%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	80.5%	95.3%	91.7%
2026-09-13T01:06:32+00:00	90.4%	77.0%	80.5%	95.3%	91.7%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	94.2%	77.0%	80.5%	95.3%	91.7%
2026-09-13T02:36:52+00:00	94.2%	77.0%	80.5%	95.3%	91.7%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	94.2%	77.0%	80.5%	95.3%	91.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	98.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	97.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	92%	102.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	92.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	93.0°F	6.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	89.4°F	8.5°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 12 · 11:34 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗