— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hrrr
96¢
rrfs
82¢
aifs
70¢
eps
59¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
49¢
nbm
41¢
icon
22¢
wn2
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
90–91°F1¢
92–93°F6¢
94–95°F17¢
96–97°F29¢
98–99°F27¢
100–101°F15¢
102–103°F4¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,798 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.738 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE98 · opened 2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape