KBNA / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

59%

49%

22%

20%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

WN2NO 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.40u · WN2 −55.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	67.8%	53.1%	19.2%	43.2%	27.3%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	67.8%	53.1%	19.2%	43.2%	27.3%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	67.8%	53.1%	29.8%	43.2%	27.3%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	67.8%	53.1%	29.8%	43.2%	27.3%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	67.8%	53.1%	29.8%	43.2%	27.3%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	67.8%	53.1%	29.8%	43.2%	27.3%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	69.5%	53.1%	29.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	69.5%	53.1%	29.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	69.5%	53.1%	29.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	69.5%	53.1%	29.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	69.5%	54.3%	27.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	69.5%	54.3%	27.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	69.5%	54.3%	27.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	69.5%	54.3%	27.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	66.4%	54.3%	27.8%	69.1%	43.3%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	66.4%	54.3%	27.8%	69.1%	43.3%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	66.4%	54.1%	27.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	66.4%	54.1%	27.8%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	66.4%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	66.4%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	66.4%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	66.4%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	43.3%
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	50.8%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	50.8%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	50.8%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	18.5%	75.5%	50.8%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	20.6%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	25.2%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	25.2%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	63.3%	54.1%	25.2%	27.1%	50.8%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	63.2%	54.1%	25.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	63.2%	54.1%	25.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	63.2%	54.1%	25.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	63.2%	54.1%	25.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	63.2%	54.1%	25.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	63.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	63.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	63.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	22.2%	71.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	22.2%	68.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	16.3%	68.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	16.3%	68.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	68.2%	52.6%	16.3%	68.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	70.6%	52.6%	16.3%	66.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	70.6%	52.6%	16.3%	66.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	70.6%	52.6%	16.3%	66.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	70.6%	52.6%	16.3%	66.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	70.6%	52.6%	16.3%	66.9%	42.9%
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	42.8%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	16.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	69.1%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	67.3%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	67.3%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	67.3%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	67.3%	60.8%	28.3%	69.4%	33.5%
2026-09-17T10:28:36+00:00	67.3%	60.8%	28.3%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	67.3%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	67.3%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	67.3%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	33.5%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	23.8%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	63.0%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	64.8%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	64.8%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	64.8%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	64.8%	54.1%	14.6%	67.7%	16.1%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	64.8%	54.1%	14.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	64.8%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	64.8%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	64.8%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	67.4%	55.4%	19.6%	59.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	66.0%	55.4%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	66.0%	55.4%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	66.0%	55.4%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	66.0%	55.4%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	66.0%	55.4%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	66.0%	57.6%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	66.0%	57.6%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	66.0%	57.6%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	59.6%	57.6%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	59.6%	57.6%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T15:07:08+00:00	59.6%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	59.6%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	40.0%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	59.6%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	59.6%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	59.6%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	59.6%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	67.0%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	67.0%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	67.0%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	67.0%	57.5%	19.6%	66.5%	22.3%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	67.0%	57.5%	19.6%	48.9%	22.3%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	67.0%	58.7%	19.6%	48.9%	22.3%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	67.0%	58.7%	19.6%	48.9%	22.3%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	67.0%	58.7%	19.6%	48.9%	22.3%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	69.6%	58.7%	19.6%	48.9%	22.3%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	69.6%	58.7%	19.6%	48.9%	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	99.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	98.1°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	98.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	97.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	97.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	22%	94.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	94.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260919-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗