— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
rrfs
100¢
nbm
98¢
ndfd
97¢
aifs
95¢
hres
94¢
icon
93¢
wn2
80¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
88–89°F1¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F9¢
94–95°F19¢
96–97°F26¢
98–99°F23¢
100–101°F13¢
102–103°F5¢
104–105°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,698 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.205 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape