KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 19 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

94%

93%

80%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 89.60u

WN2NO 10.4¢Risks 10.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +10.40u · WN2 −10.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	95.0%	68.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	95.0%	68.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	95.0%	68.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	95.0%	68.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	95.0%	98.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	95.0%	98.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	95.0%	98.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	95.0%	98.1%	68.9%	25.3%	59.3%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	68.8%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	68.8%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	68.8%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	68.8%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	57.5%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	57.5%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	57.5%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	85.2%	98.1%	57.5%	25.5%	59.3%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	64.7%	98.1%	57.5%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	64.7%	98.1%	57.5%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	64.7%	98.1%	57.5%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	64.7%	98.1%	57.5%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	64.7%	97.9%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	64.7%	97.9%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	64.7%	97.9%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	64.7%	97.9%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	45.8%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	56.7%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	56.7%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	56.7%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	70.6%	98.0%	56.7%	77.1%	75.0%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	86.9%	98.0%	56.7%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	86.9%	98.0%	56.7%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	86.9%	98.0%	56.7%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	86.9%	98.0%	56.7%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	86.9%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	86.9%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	86.9%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	86.9%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	92.8%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	91.7%	93.0%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	91.7%	93.0%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	93.0%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	93.0%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	93.0%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	93.0%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	93.0%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	92.8%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	93.0%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	89.8%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	89.8%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	89.8%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	62.3%	96.6%	89.8%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	92.0%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	68.9%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	73.4%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	73.4%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	84.8%	99.9%	73.4%	93.6%	89.8%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	73.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	73.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	73.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	73.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	73.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.6%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.5%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.5%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	81.4%	98.1%	73.5%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	81.4%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	89.3%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	88.2%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	88.2%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	88.2%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	88.2%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	88.2%	99.9%	77.2%	94.7%	86.9%
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	88.2%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	88.2%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	88.2%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	71.8%	98.1%	87.3%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	94.9%	99.7%	79.5%	93.9%	93.0%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	94.9%	99.7%	79.5%	93.9%	93.0%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	94.9%	99.7%	79.5%	93.9%	93.0%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	94.9%	99.7%	79.5%	93.9%	93.0%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	94.9%	99.7%	79.5%	93.9%	93.0%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	94.9%	99.7%	79.5%	93.9%	93.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	96.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	97%	96.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	96.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	95.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	94.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗