— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
aifs
93¢
hres
92¢
wn2
92¢
icon
77¢
nbm
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F18¢
90–91°F20¢
92–93°F16¢
94–95°F11¢
96–97°F5¢
98–99°F2¢
100–101°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,700 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.205 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape