KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

92%

92%

77%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 88.3¢Risks 88.35u

ICONNO 11.7¢Risks 11.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +11.65u · ICON −11.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	83.9%	99.4%	87.2%	90.9%	68.4%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	83.9%	99.4%	87.2%	90.9%	68.4%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	83.9%	99.4%	87.2%	90.9%	68.4%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	83.9%	99.4%	87.2%	90.9%	68.4%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	81.6%	99.4%	87.2%	84.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	81.6%	99.4%	87.2%	84.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	87.2%	90.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	87.2%	90.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	68.8%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	77.2%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	77.2%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	77.2%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	85.8%	90.9%	77.2%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	92.3%	92.4%	77.2%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	92.3%	92.4%	77.2%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	92.3%	92.4%	77.2%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	92.8%	99.5%	92.3%	92.4%	77.2%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	93.0%	99.5%	92.3%	92.4%	77.2%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	93.0%	99.5%	92.3%	92.4%	77.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	95.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	89.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	90.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	88.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	88.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 15 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗