— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
83¢
hres
80¢
aifs
67¢
wn2
62¢
icon
57¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F5¢
84–85°F10¢
86–87°F15¢
88–89°F19¢
90–91°F19¢
92–93°F15¢
94–95°F9¢
96–97°F4¢
98–99°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,700 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.205 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape