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KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 15 · 10:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
HRES
80%
AIFS
67%
WN2
62%
ICON
57%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 70.2¢Risks 70.15u
VS
ICONNO 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.85u · ICON −29.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:0009-15 08:0109-15 09:3109-15 10:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:0067.4%83.4%61.6%80.3%56.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:0067.4%83.4%61.6%80.3%56.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:0067.4%83.4%61.6%80.3%56.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:0067.4%83.4%61.6%80.3%56.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%89.9°F5.6°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES80%89.8°F6.2°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single67%87.0°F5.5°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%86.0°F5.1°F2026-09-14 18:00Pending
ICON57%86.2°F9.8°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
National Blend55%85.4°F6.6°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗