— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
67¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
45¢
nbm
44¢
icon
43¢
wn2
13¢
aifs
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F19¢
86–87°F26¢
88–89°F23¢
90–91°F13¢
92–93°F5¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,055 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.207.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE93 · opened 2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape