KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

45%

43%

13%

10%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

AIFSNO 61.7¢Risks 61.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.70u · AIFS −61.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	16.0%	84.8%	16.8%	39.9%	18.5%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	16.0%	84.8%	16.8%	39.9%	18.5%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	16.0%	84.8%	16.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	16.0%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	16.0%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	16.0%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	21.6%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	21.6%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	21.6%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	21.6%	84.8%	19.8%	39.9%	41.9%
2026-09-17T10:28:37+00:00	21.6%	84.8%	19.8%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	21.6%	66.0%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	21.6%	66.0%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	21.6%	66.0%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	12.6%	66.0%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	12.5%	66.0%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	12.5%	66.4%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	12.5%	66.4%	19.3%	60.1%	41.9%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	12.5%	66.4%	19.3%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	12.5%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	12.5%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	12.5%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	11.3%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	11.3%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	11.3%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	11.3%	66.4%	13.4%	60.1%	42.6%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	11.3%	66.4%	13.4%	44.6%	42.6%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	11.3%	66.8%	12.9%	44.6%	42.6%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	11.3%	66.8%	12.9%	44.6%	42.6%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	11.3%	66.8%	12.9%	44.6%	42.6%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	9.8%	66.8%	12.9%	44.6%	42.6%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	9.8%	66.8%	12.9%	44.6%	42.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	94.5°F	4.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	93.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	91.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	92.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	91.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗