— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
eps
46¢
nbm
37¢
wn2
20¢
aifs
12¢
icon
6¢
hres
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F13¢
90–91°F9¢
92–93°F5¢
94–95°F2¢
96–97°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 12,602 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.874 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape