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KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
46%
WN2
20%
AIFS
12%
ICON
6%
HRES
5%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u
VS
HRESNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.55u · HRES −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.7% · 2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.1% · 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.1% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.1% · 2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.1% · 2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.1% · 2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00IFS HRES: 17.1% · 2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00ICON: 55.7% · 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00ICON: 55.7% · 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00ICON: 55.7% · 2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00ICON: 55.7% · 2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00ICON: 55.7% · 2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:0009-16 07:2209-18 06:4809-18 14:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:0063.4%71.4%53.1%87.7%55.7%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:0063.4%71.4%53.1%87.7%55.7%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:0063.4%71.4%53.1%87.7%55.7%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:0063.4%71.4%53.1%87.7%55.7%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:0063.4%71.4%53.1%87.7%55.7%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:0014.2%72.7%20.4%17.1%31.9%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:0014.2%72.7%20.4%17.1%31.9%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:0014.2%72.7%20.4%17.1%6.3%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:0014.2%72.7%20.4%17.1%6.3%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:0014.2%72.7%20.4%17.1%6.3%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:0014.2%72.7%20.4%17.1%6.3%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:0011.3%72.7%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:0011.3%72.7%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:0011.3%72.7%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:0011.3%72.7%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:0011.3%72.7%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:0011.3%46.1%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:0011.3%46.1%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:0011.3%46.1%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:0012.5%46.1%20.4%4.8%6.3%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:0012.5%46.1%20.4%4.8%6.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%87.0°F5.1°F2026-09-18 02:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%86.0°F5.1°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
National Blend37%84.0°F7.6°F2026-09-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%82.8°F4.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single12%80.8°F5.0°F2026-09-18 06:00Pending
ICON6%77.5°F5.9°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%76.8°F5.8°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗