— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
31¢
hres
12¢
wn2
7¢
nbm
6¢
ndfd
4¢
aifs
0¢
icon
0¢
rrfs
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F17¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F9¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,651 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.513 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape